## PENGARUH PDB RIIL DAN VARIABEL FISKAL TERHADAP PENANAMAN MODAL ASING LANGSUNG DI INDONESIA

**ABSTRAK**

** **

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui besarnya pengaruh PDB Riil dan variabel-variabel fiskal terhadap penanaman modal asing langsung di Indonesia periode tahun 1980 – 2006, serta untuk mengetahui tingkat kepekaan (elastisitas) penanaman modal asing langsung terhadap PDB Riil dan variabel fiskal di Indonesia periode tahun 1980- 2006.

Data yang dipergunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data runtun waktu atau data tahunan selama 27 tahun yang bersifat sekunder. Data diperoleh dari Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (SEKI) BI. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah model Regresi Linier Berganda dengan alat analisis : analisis korelasi (R), analisis koefisien determinasi (R^{2}), analisis elastisitas, dan uji stabilitas model, sedangkan pengujian yang dilakukan adalah Uji F, uji t, dan Uji autokorelasi dengan Durbin Watson dan uji multikolinieritas dengan menggunakan program perhitungan EViews.

Dari hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa 96,16 % penanaman modal asing langsung di Indonesia dipengaruhi oleh PDB riil, PPH, PBB, PPN, pengeluaran pembangunan ekonomi, pengeluaran transportasi dan komunikasi, pengeluaran pemerintah untuk pendidikan, serta krisis ekonomi* *sedangkan sisanya sebesar 3,84 % dipengaruhi oleh faktor lain di luar model tersebut.

Pengaruh PDB Riil, PBB, pengeluaran pemerintah untuk transportasi dan komunikasi dan variabel dummy secara parsial berpengaruh tidak signifikan sedangkan PPH, PPN, pengeluaran pemerintah untuk pembangunan dan pendidikan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap PMA langsung di Indonesia periode 1980– 2006.

** **

Kata Kunci : PMA Langsung, PPH, PBB, PPN, Pengeluaran Pemerintah Untuk Pembangunan, Transportasi dan Komunikasi, Pendidikan, Krisis Moneter.

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## ANALISIS INDIKATOR MAKRO EKONOMI KABUPATEN TASIKMALAYA (Tahun 2002-2007) (Studi Komparatif antara Kab.Tasikmalaya dengan Kab. Ciamis)

**ABSTRAK**

Penelitian ini memiliki tiga tujuan. 1). Untuk mengetahui trend indikator makro ekonomi. 2). Untuk mengetahui perbandingan indikator makro ekonomi (elasisitas dan rata-rata pertumbuhan).3). Apakah di Kabupaten Tasikmalaya dan Kabupaten Ciamis terjadi *paradox of growth* atau tidak.

Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis Trend, Elastisitas, Rata-rata pertumbuhan dan korelasi. Indikator makro yang digunakan yaitu : IPM, LPE, Inflasi, PDRB harga berlaku, Jumlah Penduduk, LPP, Penduduk Miskin, Pengangguran dan Kesempatan Kerja.

Hasil dari penelitian menunjukan bahwa: **1)**. Trend beberapa indikator makro ekonomi Kabupaten Tasikmalaya dan Kabupaten Ciamis mengalami peningkatan **2)**. Indikator makro ekonomi Kabupaten Tasikmlaya lebih bagus dibanding Kabupaten Ciamis (elastisitas dan rata-rata pertumbuhan) **3)**. Di Kabupaten Tasikmalaya dan Kabupaten Ciamis untuk hubungan LPE terhadap pengangguran terjadi *paradox of growth* sedangkan untuk hubungan LPE terhadap penduduk miskin di Kabupaten Tasikmalaya terjadi *paradox of growth* dan di Kabupaten Ciamis tidak terjadi paradoks growth.

Untuk Kabupaten Tasikmalaya penulis merekomendasikan agar lebih meningkatkan kinerja perekonomian, mengoptimalkan potensi yang dimiliki seperti potensi yang terdapat di sektor pertanian yang merupakan sektor unggulan..

Kata kunci : Indikator makro, trend, elstisitas, rata-rata pertumbuhan, korelasi.

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## ANALISIS VARIABEL YANG MENENTUKAN PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1996 – 2006

**Fani Riyana Irvandi****, ****Aso Sukarso, Andi Rustandi**

*Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Siliwangi *

* *

*ABSTRACT*

*This research aimed to know how about influence variable of **government acceptance ratio with national earnings**, variable of **national earnings, and the **government acceptance **variable** of previous period** **to variable of government expenditure in Indonesia during period 1996 – 2006**,** and to know the sensitivity level (elasticity) of **government expenditure** to variable of **government acceptance ratio with national earnings**, variable of **national earnings, and the **government acceptance **variable** of previous period** **in Indonesia during period **1996 – 2006**.*

*Data used in this research was secondary data or yearly data along eleven years. Data were taken from Statistical of Economics and Finance Indonesia (SEFI) BI. Method of Research used was Multiple Regression Linear with analysis appliance: correlation analysis (R), coefficient analysis of determinant (R ^{2}), and elasticity analysis, while examination taken is test F, test t, and test autocorrelation by using calculation of EVIEWS program.*

*Based on this research to show that 99,39 % of **government expenditure** in Indonesia influenced by variable of **government acceptance ratio with national earnings**, variable of **national earnings, and **government acceptance variable of previous period** w**hile remainder about 0,61 % were influence by other factors out of this model.*

*The influence of variable of **government acceptance ratio **with** national earnings** and variable of **national earnings **partially is significant on **government expenditure** in Indonesia during period of 1996 _{ }– 2006. *

*But for the variable*

*government acceptance of previous period,*

*have an effect on don’t*

*significant*

*to government expenditure in Indonesia period 1996 – 2006.*

*Elasticity **government expenditure** to variable of **government acceptance ratio with national earnings** is inelastic with relations which are positive. While for variable of **national earnings** is elastic with relation which are positive. **As for government acceptance variable of previous period elasticity is inelastic **with relation which are positive**.*

* *

*Key words : government expenditure, government acceptance, and national earnings.*

## ANALISIS PENGARUH PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO DAN PENDAPATAN PERKAPITA TERHADAP PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH (PAD) DI KABUPATEN MAJALENGKA PERIODE 1996 – 2005

**Aso Sukarso, Nanang Rusliana., ****Eka Kripo Poniman**

**Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas*** Ekonomi Universitas Siliwangi*

** **

** **

*ABSTRACT*

* *

* The objectives of research are : 1) to know the influence of PDRB and per capita income towards of PAD in Majalengka regency during the 1996-2005 period 2) to know the elasticity of PAD towards the PDRB and Per capita Income in Majalengka regency during the 1996 – 2005 period*

* The method of research was used descriptive method, and the research data collection by using secondary data (time series) that was obtain from BPS office and Dispenda of Majalengka regency, the analysis instrument, whereas the data validity experiment was used (Autocorrelation and multikolinearitas experiment) and also by using elasticity analysis.*

*From research result use test R2, in the reality the level influence of Product Domestic Regional Bruto and per capita to Original Earnings of Area in Sub-Province Majalengka year period 1996-2005 is equal to 0,96 while the rest that is 0,04 representing influence from the other factor. With the statistical examination F in the reality together showed the Product Domestic Regional Bruto, and per capita income to Original Earnings of Area in Sub-Province Majalengka Period 1996-2005. For the elasticity of Product Domestic Regional Bruto (PDRB) and per capita income to Original Earnings of Area in Sub-Province Majalengka year period 1996-2005 were *2.1388* (elastic) and *0.1393 *(inelastic).*

* *

*Keyword: PDR, per capita income, PAD*

## ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI UANG PRIMER DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1990-2002

**Aso Sukarso, Chandra Budi L.S., Epi Purnama**

*Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Siliwangi*

* *

* *

*ABSTRACT*

* *

*In economics, society often correlate money supply with growth of economics, increase of price (inflation), rate of interest, etcetera. Often said that by the amount of money supply which too much push economic activity will expand fast considerably. If taking place to continue, this matter is assumed dangerous because goods price will mount sharply. On the contrary, if money supply too a few hence economic activity become to drag or is tardy. If money supply too much hence rate of interest will tend to go down conversely.*

*Used by Research method writer is descriptive method by using model of econometric and tested by some analyzer of regression. Calculation of his statistic use coefficient formulasi of determinasi, test t, tests F, test autocorrelation (Durbin-Watson) by using application of E-Views 3.0. for Windows.*

*Domestic Product Bruto Variable, exchange rate and inflation have an effect on significant to primary money in Indonesia, while rate interest variable of SBI its influence don’t significant to primary money. Is but seen from its correlation of inflation, domestic product bruto and exchange rate have an effect on positive to primary money. While rate interest of SBI have an effect on negativity to request of money.*

*Elasticity level of domestic product bruto to primary money that is equal to 0,15 (inelastic). Elasticity exchange rate value to primary money equal to 0,12 (inelastic). Rate interest of SBI elasticity **owning* *to primary money equal to -0,01 (inelastic). Elasticity level of inflation variable to primary money equal to 0,01 (inelastic).*

* *

*Keyword: interest rate SBI, inflation, gross domestic product, exchange rate, primary money *

## ANALISIS FAKTOR FUNDAMENTAL YANG MEMPENGARUHI IMPOR BERAS DI INDONESIA PERIODE TAHUN 1994 – 2005.

**Ade Komaludin, ****Aso Sukarso, Handi Tristia Agung Haryono Tunggal**

*Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Siliwangi*

** **

**ABSTRACT**

*Import is a function basically showing the relationship between the nation and its National Income. In this theme the writer takes the rice for subject in import demand analysis and the variable of rice Import is influenced by some macro variable.*

*An according to this case, this research therefore has taken the title: “The Analysis of Fundamental Factor Affecting Rice Import in Indonesia 1994-2005 Period”. The aim of this research is to analyze the relationship between some macroeconomics variable (National Income, Riil Exchange Rate and Domestic Price (measured with Consumer Price Index / CPI) against the demand of rice import in Indonesia.*

*The research method used by the writer is descriptive method by using econometrical model and tested by some regression analysis means. The statistical Calculations uses determination coefficient formulation, t test, f test, autocorrelation test (Durbin-Watson) by using additional calculation appliance of Eviews 3.0.*

*The result of this study indicates the fact happened in Indonesia during the period of research is that the import demand of rice is very much influenced by some macro economics variables (National Incomes, Riil Exchange Rate and Domestic Price). The test result of statistics t shows that the partial National Income and Domestic Price have an effect on Import of Rice demand in Indonesia significantly and elastically, while Nominal Exchange Rate remains insignificant and inelastic. The test result of statistics F shows that altogether there are significant influences from some macro economic variables (National Income, Riil Exchange Rate and Domestic Price) on the import demand of rice in Indonesia with 5% of significance degree.*

** **

*Keyword: national income. Real exchange rate, import *

## ANALISIS VARIABEL YANG MEMPENGARUHI PENERIMAAN PEMERINTAH (PAJAK) DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1996 – 2006

**Aso Sukarso, Nanang Rusliana, Fajar Dwipurnama**

*Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Siliwangi*

** **

** **

*ABSTRACT*

** **

*The purpose of this research is to know how large the influence of international oil price, gross domestic product, and government income (tax) previous period toward government income (tax) in Indonesia in period of 1996 – 2006, and to know which variable among international oil price, gross domestic product, and government income (tax) previous period that have the largest influence toward government income (tax) in Indonesia in period of 1996 – 2006.*

*Data used in this research is secondary time series data or annually data for 11 years. Data is got from Statistical Economics and Finance Indonesia (SEFI) BI, annually report of BI, and Energy Information Administration. The method of research used is simple and multiple linear regression model with the tools of analysis : correlation analysis (R), and determination coefficient analysis (R ^{2}), while examination taken is F test, t test, autocorrelation test, multicolinearity test, and heteroscedastic test with using EViews program calculation.*

*The result of this research showed that 99,24 % of government income (tax) was influenced by international oil price, gross domestic product, and government income (tax) in previous period, while the rest of 0,76 % was influenced by other factor.*

*Influence of international oil price, gross domestic product, and government income (tax) in previous period toward government income (tax) in Indonesia in period 1996 – 2006 partially is significant.*

*Among international oil price, gross domestic product, and government income (tax) in previous period that have the largest influence toward government income (tax) in Indonesia in period 1996 – 2006 was gross domestic product with determination value 0,9849. This means that the influence gross domestic product toward government income (tax) was 98,49 %, while the rest of 1,51 % was the influence from the other factor.*

** **

*Keyword: international oil price, gross domestic product, government income (tax)*

## PENGARUH BEBERAPA VARIABEL PUAB (SUKU BUNGA SBI, VOLUME LELANG / OPT, DAN JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR) TERHADAP TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA PUAB DI INDONESIA PERIODE JANUARI 2002-DESEMBER 2004.

**Aso Sukarso, Budh****i Wahyu F., Andi Suwandi**

**Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas*** Ekonomi Universitas Siliwangi*

*ABSTRACT*

*Economic growth as a one of mean of monetary policy can shown by rate of investment growth at riil sector. Growth of riil sector activity verry depend to growth of likuidity and rate of interest in the monetary market. This thesis tries to learning monetary approach to rate of invest that happen. Especially is rate of PUAB interest by basic model that used by Bambang Hermanto (2002) in his empirical study, used in this research with data of time monthly series which consist of rate of PUAB interest, rate of SBI interest, Bidding volume / OPT, and Money supply.*

*Method in this research use a descriptive method by using model of econometric and tested by some analyzer of regression. Calculations of statistic use formulation coefficient of determination, test t, test F, test autocorrelation (Durbin-Watson), and multicolinearity test by using aid appliance calculation of SPSS.*

*Result of this study show there is strong influence of PUAB variables to rate of PUAB interest in Indonesia. Result of examination test t show that by partial there are influence which is significant of rate of SBI interest, Bidding Volume / OPT, and Money Supply to rate of PUAB interest. Result of examination test F show that by together there is influence which is significant of rate of SBI interest, Bidding volume / OPT, and Money supply to rate of PUAB interest. *

*Keyword: **rate of PUAB interest, rate of SBI interest, Bidding volume / OPT, **Money supply.*

## ANALISIS PENGARUH KURS DAN UANG BEREDAR TERHADAP INFLASI DI INDONESIA PADA PERIODE 2001Q1-2006Q1

**Aso Sukarso, Buhdi Wahyu F, Indri Purnamasari**

*Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Siliwangi*

** **

** **

*ABSTRACT*

*Issues related with inflation rate have becomes interesting topic for economic since a long period ago, because the indicators have a very important role in a country’s recently. Like Indonesia. Inflation rate consiret too high and weak need fluctuation of currency is to steady growth this condition given effect of infestation and growth economic.*

*This research aimed to know how about influence currency and money supply to inflation in Indonesia at the period of the 2001Q1-2006Q1.*

*The data used in thesis is descriptive secondary data along five years taken from 2001Q1 and 2006Q1 are quarterly data, data released by Indonesia finance economy of statistic and observation consisting is 21.*

*The instrument analysis that is used in this research are determinant coefficient test, correlation coefficient test, other test like test Ftest and assumption classic determination like DW test, heteroskedasticity, multikolinearity. *

*Based on analysis and processing is used it can be conclude the influence currency fluctuation and money supply to inflation can be simultance is 66,3527 % is significance positive and the 33,6473 % taste influence by other factors.*

*Keyword: kurs, money supply, inflation*

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